“If North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons becomes definite,” said Shinzo Abe, the secretary-general of Japan's governing Liberal Democratic Party, and North Korea “conducts nuclear testing, for instance, Japan will naturally bring the issue to the U.N. and call for sanctions.”
North Korea has repeatedly declared that it would consider any U.N. sanctions to be an act of war.
This month's warning by Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security advisor, is the closest the Administration has come to drawing a “red line”–a term often used during the Cold War–that North Korea could not cross without penalty. It has been feared that drawing a clear line would be seen as a challenge (David Sanger, NY Times 5/16/05).
On camera in October, 2004, Colin Powell stated that “we don't have any red lines” for dealing with North Korea–as the United States has indeed demonstrated over 15 years of an incrementally increasing threat. Only token resistance was encountered as North Korea crossed one potential red line after another: in October 2002, a secret, highly illicit enriched uranium program; in January 2003, announcement of intention to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); in February 2003, reactivating the Yongbyong reactor; in April 2003, withdrawal from the NPT; then the reprocessing of nuclear fuel and engaging in international trade in plutonium, as with Libya.
In February 2005, North Korea announced that it had “manufactured nukes.” Thus, “conference diplomacy” failed decisively, and illusions were “suddenly and nakedly exposed” (Nicholas Eberstadt, Wall St J 2/14/05).
Other news, from the period shortly before or after “9/11,” that made hardly a blip in the major news media or the national consciousness, in chronologic order:
China Adding Missiles Aimed at Taiwan, Bill Gertz, Wash Times 2/5/01: China has up to 300 short-range missiles near Taiwan. Russia supplied advanced ballistic-missile technology and strategic warhead know-how.
Nuke Weapons Infrastructure “Fragile,” “Crumbling,” Jon Dougherty, WorldNetDaily 3/21/01: Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) told a Senate committee that the U.S. nuclear-weapons facilities were in need of major upgrades. Under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, prediction of the effects of aging on nuclear warheads and stockpile maintenance depends on computer modeling. The last British underground test was carried out around 1992 (Nature 2002;415:853-857). “The CTBT is the cornerstone of the worldwide effort to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and reduce the nuclear danger,” wrote Sidney Drell et al. Remanufacture of weapons that have degraded unacceptably requires different processes than the original construction because of unavailability of original materials and industrial resources or new environmental and safety regulations. With excellent new data and computer simulations by top-quality scientists, we should have clear warnings of unanticipated problems, say Drell et al., although “no responsible weapon designer would certify the reliability, safety, and overall performance of a new design...without underground testing; and no responsible military officer would risk deploying or using such an untested weapons system” (Science 1999;283:1119-1120).
Beijing-Moscow Military Alliance Grows, Toby Westerman, WorldNetDaily 4/7/01: Among the ambitious objectives are Chinese weapons capable of penetrating an American anti-missile shield and anti-satellite weapons. Half of Russia's arms exports go to China.
Missile Defense Deployed in Russia, Kenneth Timmerman, Insight 4/30/01 (www.insightmag.com): Recently declassified documents prove that the Soviets cheated massively on the ABM Treaty from the start. Russia now has a de facto missile-defense network with at least 8,000 modern interceptors, tipped with small nuclear warheads that do not require bullet-hitting-bullet accuracy.
U.S. Threatened with EMP Attack, Kenneth Timmerman, Insight 5/28/01: During the Cold War, the Pentagon spent billions of dollars protecting U.S. military equipment against an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Many programs have been shut down, and none of the civilian infrastructure is protected because of the high cost.
Nuclear Power Failure?, CBS News 1/9/02. Nuclear bombs and missiles in the U.S. arsenal contain batteries manufactured by a defense contractor that, according to workers, knowingly produced faulty batteries. If batteries malfunction, weapons can go off target.
CIA: China Expected to Target U.S., John J. Lumpkin, AP, 2/9/02: By 2015, China is expected to have between 75 and 100 long-range missiles targeted at the U.S., possibly with multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs). North Korea and Iran will also probably have missiles capable of reaching the U.S. by 2015.
Arms control advocates have achieved a number of their goals. Considerable progress has been made in the unilateral disarmament of the United States. But the threat proliferates.
In the wake of Sept 11, the Swiss conducted nationwide exercises of their civil defense response to a nuclear event that contaminated a wide area and forced millions into bomb shelters. Israel, a prospective Ground Zero, allocated only $110 million for civil defense, including body identification units. Israel lacks 250,000 square meters of bomb shelter space, and 18% of the country's high schools and 24% of middle schools have no shelter whatsoever (newsmax.com 6/22/02). In the U.S., the lack is virtually total.
Additions to the program since our last newsletter include “Roadrunner Bob Gilliland,” who has logged more hours at Mach 2 and Mach 3 than any other test pilot. The revolutionary aircraft he piloted, such as the SR-71 Blackbird, may have prevented nuclear war because of the reliable intelligence they provided in the days before satellite surveillance. Dr. Jack Snyder of the National Library of Medicine will provide one-on-one, hands-on demonstrations of WISER and other information tools for mitigating chemical and biological threats, in addition to his talk. Disputes about the teaching of evolution or intelligent design–or the publication of critiques of evolution in the scientific literature–have been prominent in the national news media, as well as Science and Nature. DDP will experiment with a debate format, with plenty of opportunity for audience interaction, featuring Roger Schlafly and Robert Welles.
Also new to our program this year are Greg Canavan of Los Alamos; Jack Dini, author of Challenging Environmental Mythology; Paul Driessen, author of Eco-Imperialism; Kenneth Green, formerly of the Fraser Institute; Steven Milloy, founder of JunkScience.com; and Ruth Weiner, an expert on the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal project.
We look forward to return engagements by Sallie Baliunas, Jay Lehr, Howard Maccabee, Jim Muckerheide, Sharon Packer, Art Robinson, Paul Seyfried, and Fred Singer. As DDP repeatedly has the best audience as well as the best program, you don't want to miss this meeting.
DEADLINES: June 10 to make hotel reservations at the Orleans Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, (800) 675-3267; July 5 for us to provide your information to the Nevada Test Site if you wish to take the tour. If you are not a U.S. citizen, we need the information immediately (6 weeks before the tour).
This year, we plan to make CDs and DVDs of the presentations, although audio cassettes will still be available.
Join us for the welcome reception on Friday, July 15!
DDP, 1601 N. Tucson Blvd. Suite 9, Tucson, AZ 85716, (520)325-2680, www.oism.org/ddp