DOCTORS FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS NEWSLETTER

The U.S. government shows increasing signs of concern about a terrorist nuclear attack on an American city. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry thinks the risk is greater than 50% in the next decade. Richard Garwin told Congress in March that there was a “20% per year probability [of a nuclear explosion] with American cities and European cities included,” according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

A “high-level group of government and military officials” has reportedly been “quietly preparing an emergency survival program that would include the building of bomb shelters, steps to prevent panicked evacuations and the possible suspension of some civil liberties,” writes James Sterngold (San Francisco Chronicle 5/11/07).

Evacuation attempts could lead to roadway paralysis and increased fallout exposure.

Recommendations from the Stanford-Harvard Preventive Defense Project include suspending regulations on radiation exposure so that first responders would be able to act, even if that caused higher cancer rates.

Local governments are urged to build bomb shelters. At least one community, Huntsville-Madison County, Alabama, is rebuilding the public fallout shelter program that existed in the 1970s, spending only tens of thousands of dollars, under the leadership of Kirk Paradise, plans coordinator for the county Emergency Management Agency.

Paradise started by locating the National Fallout Shelter Survey, last printed out in 1992. Such records can be sought in U.S. Corps of Engineers District Offices, FEMA regional offices, or state emergency management agencies. Madison County had 150 federally surveyed and approved public fallout shelters, with a total capacity of about 300,000 persons. The owners had not been contacted since 1980.

Huntsville hired a civil engineer to survey new buildings and significantly remodeled old ones to determine protection factors. Space has been identified in government buildings, private schools, shopping malls, churches, industrial buildings, banks, and apartments. The majority of owners have given consent to post signs and to use the space in case of need.

A course has been organized, and 78 shelter managers have been trained.

Alabama was one of the few states to keep its instruments operational when the FEMA terminated the national radiologic monitoring program in 1993. Unfortunately, the meters cannot be stored in the shelters. The county also has an operational, EMP-hardened aerial meter designed to survey 4—5 square miles per hour from a light airplane.

Shelters are not stocked at the present time. Shelterees would be expected to bring their own food and water. Huntsville is working on grants for stockpiling supplies.

A videotaped interview of Kirk Paradise by Steve Jones is now available at www.ddponline.org, and a PowerPoint presentation is available on request.

INTERDICTION EFFORTS

Each year some 12 million containers enter the U.S. With little public discussion, the federal government has deployed some 1,500 radiation detectors to overseas ports, border crossings, domestic seaports, airports, railways, mail facilities, and even some highway truck stops. The number has more than doubled since last year (see CDP, January 2006).

The sensors generate more than a thousand alarms every day, each one of which must be investigated. Nuclear bomb material or cobalt-contaminated steel needs to be distinguished from bananas and ceramic tiles.

Of all the potentially dangerous radioactive isotopes, the one most difficult to detect is highly enriched U-235 for bomb making. It is very “dull” and easy to shield.

The Bush Administration is spending about $400 million per year on radiation-detection research. The cost of a “nuclear shield” of radiation sensors to protect against a sneak attack would require from 100,000 to 400,000 detectors and cost around $10 billion, in the estimation of former Pentagon advisor Richard Wagner (Steve Coll, New Yorker, March 2007). But even a 100% success rate for scanning programs would not reduce the likelihood of radiological attack, writes Randall Larsen, director of the Institute for Homeland Security (Wall St J 5/25/06).

Larsen recommends spending 10% of the resources on response and mitigation capabilities should a nuclear detonation occur. “Developing pre-positioned equipment (as does France) for responders and the American population is required.”

At present, detection of high-level fission products post nuclear detonation remains a do-it-yourself enterprise for most Americans.

DRUGS PAST THEIR EXPIRATION DATE

Pharmaceutical companies may be unwilling to comment on the usability of their product after the expiration date owing to liability concerns. According to the Medical Letter, Oct 28, 2002, there are virtually no reports of toxicity from the degradation products of outdated drugs. In 1963, there was a case of renal tubular damage associated with outdated tetracycline. Current preparations use a different filler to minimize degradation and are unlikely to have this effect. Many drugs stored under reasonable conditions retain 90% of their potency for at least 5 years after the expiration date, and sometimes much longer. Liquid drugs are less stable. Epinephrine loses potency after the expiration date, even if not discolored. The limiting factor for ophthalmic drugs may be the continued ability of the preservative to inhibit microbial growth. (www.medletter.com).

THE TRUE FIRST RESPONDERS ARE CITIZENS

Rescue workers will, at best, take 10 to 20 minutes to arrive at a scene. Unfortunately, top-down disaster planning views the public as a “problem to be managed rather than an asset to be utilized.” Citizens have devised tourniquets to stop bleeding, moved people from wrecked rail cars, and kept people calm (Christian Sci Mon 7/14/05).

People need to be taught how to recognize and report suspicious behavior. If something doesn't seem right on the bus, they should get off and walk away. They need to know that terrorists may set a second bomb to explode 5 minutes after the first, to try to kill rescuers. People who travel on mass transit should carry a small towel, a bottle of water, and a flashlight. A wet towel over the face can protect against poisonous fumes, advises security consultant Juval Aviv (WorldNetDaily 7/9/05).

ANNUAL MEETING UPDATES

Three outstanding speakers have been added since our draft agenda was mailed. Dr. S.S. Penner of the University of California at San Diego will be speaking on “Liquid Fuel from U.S. Coal Sources.” George Gilder will address our Sunday luncheon on the subject of “Fact and Rumor: the Degeneration of Science Journalism.” And the banquet address will be given by John Meredith, who has fought against the radical green agenda as a member of the Project 21 African-American leadership program. He will discuss the impact of the global warming and other environmentalist campaigns on Africa.

Be sure to sign up early for the Alcatraz tour. Space is limited, but if we have enough interested people, we can consider a second bus.

DDP, 1601 N. Tucson Blvd. Suite 9, Tucson, AZ 85716, (520)325-2680, www.oism.org/ddp