No Policemen Died in Nagasaki

DDP Newsletter, November 2013, Vol. XXXI, No. 6

When he visited Hiroshima and Nagasaki recently, Stephen Jones found his motivation to work for civil defense rekindled, despite decades of rejection by Americans.

In the Hiroshima Museum, he saw a poster on display that says that no policemen died in Nagasaki. The reason is that a policeman who survived Hiroshima (one of some 165 “double survivors”) carried a message to his fellow police in Nagasaki, which was hit 3 days later. Although the Japanese knew nothing about the atomic bomb, the policeman told them that a bright light would be followed within seconds by a deadly shock wave. Tsutomo Yamaguchi,a surviving ship designer for Mitsubishi, also brought this message from Hiroshima to his company in Nagasaki, and many in his section were saved from serious injury from flying glass ( He died at age 93. Continue reading

Peak Money

DDP Newsletter, May 2013, Vol. XXXI, No. 3

The world is not running out of oil or other fuels. But it is running out of money. Money is credit, and credit relies on confidence. “There is not enough confidence in the financial system to supply the world with the money it needs. Since the credit crash of 2008, “credit and money have been withdrawn from the system in such staggering amounts that international trade can no longer grow,” writes “Numerian” on Jan 2, 2012 (

“The world’s central banks are playing a rear guard action by acting as lender of last resort to banks that no longer trust each other and have stopped lending in the interbank market. As liquidity flows out from the system, the rottenness that has corrupted the foundations of global finance is now exposed for all to see.” Continue reading

Upside Down on Radiation Dangers

DDP Newsletter, September 2013, Volume XXXI, No. 5

The Fukushima containment vessels for radioactive water are leaking. This is a news hook for alarmists who have been warning of dire consequences, including a “mass extinction event” and the potential death of “billions” of people, ever since the tsunami occurred in March 2011. For example, Christina Consolo (@RadChick4cast) warns of an “apocalypse” that could make “at least the northern half of Japan uninhabitable” if it isn’t already ( 8/19/13, reprinted by She also warns that North America is in “huge trouble.” Her credentials: she’s an “award-winning biomedical photographer and host of Nuked Radio” ( 5/1/12). Continue reading

Evidence-Based Forecasting for Global Warming. J. Scott Armstrong, PhD

From DDP 31st Annual Meeting, July 14, 2013, Houston Texas.

J. Scott Armstrong (Ph.D., MIT, 1968), professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a proponent of evidence-based management. He is the founder of the
Journal of Forecasting , the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the author of Long-Range Forecasting (1985). He is the editor of Principles of Forecasting (2001), which summarizes reviews of evidence on forecasting methods compiled by 40 leading experts from various disciplines. Thesummaries were reviewed by 123 outside reviewers from various fields. The result was a set of 139 evidence-based principles. To date, this is the only set of evidence-based principles for forecasting. The principles are updated on forecasting Forecasts of global warming have been found to violate most of these principles. Full-text versions of his papers on climate change forecasting areavailable at 2007, he proposed a bet with Al Gore that he could more accurately predict climate change by simply predicting no change. While Mr. Gore refused to take the bet, site provides monthly updates on what would have happened. At the midpoint at the end of 2012, Professor Armstrong had won four of the first five years. His book, Persuasive Advertising  (2011), provides evidence-based persuasion principles. These 195 principles, many counter-intuitive, are relevant to dealing with the global- warming movement.

Bioweapons: The Bad and the Ugly (There Is No Good). Lee D. Hieb, MD

From Doctors for Disaster Preparedness 31st Annual Meeting, July 13, 2013, Houston, Texas.

Dr. Lee Hieb began her career in medicine at age four, accompanying her father on house calls along the back roads of Iowa. She graduated from the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry in Rochester New York, and completed an orthopaedic residency in the U.S. Navy. After serving as a general orthopaedic surgeon in the Navy, she returned to Rochester where she was the only woman to be appointed as the Louis A. Goldstein fellow of spinal surgery. Dr. Hieb has been in private practice for more than 25 years, and this experience has led her to become an outspoken advocate for free-market solutions. Dr. Hieb has served on the board of the Arizona Medical Association, and is a past president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society.

The Ten Tests to Determine Whether You Should Be Concerned about Global Warming

Presentation by Anthony Watts of From DDP 31st Annual Meeting, July 13, 2014, Houston Texas.

Anthony Watts is a 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran and currently chief meteorologist for KPAY-AM radio. He got his start as on-air meteorologist for WLFI-TV in Lafayette, Indiana and at KHSL-TV in Chico, California. In 1987, he founded ItWorks, which supplies broadcast graphics systems to hundreds of cable television, television, and radio stations nationwide. ItWorks supplies custom weather stations, Internet servers, weather graphics content, and broadcast video equipment. He also provides weather stations and custom weather monitoring solutions via and, and turnkey weather channels. In 2007, Watts founded, a Web site devoted to photographing and documenting the quality of weather stations across the U.S. He is the author of Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?