From DDP 31st Annual Meeting, July 14, 2013, Houston Texas.
J. Scott Armstrong (Ph.D., MIT, 1968), professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a proponent of evidence-based management. He is the founder of the
Journal of Forecasting , the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the author of Long-Range Forecasting (1985). He is the editor of Principles of Forecasting (2001), which summarizes reviews of evidence on forecasting methods compiled by 40 leading experts from various disciplines. Thesummaries were reviewed by 123 outside reviewers from various fields. The result was a set of 139 evidence-based principles. To date, this is the only set of evidence-based principles for forecasting. The principles are updated on forecasting principles.com. Forecasts of global warming have been found to violate most of these principles. Full-text versions of his papers on climate change forecasting areavailable at publicpolicyforecasting.com.In 2007, he proposed a bet with Al Gore that he could more accurately predict climate change by simply predicting no change. While Mr. Gore refused to take the bet, theclimatebet.com site provides monthly updates on what would have happened. At the midpoint at the end of 2012, Professor Armstrong had won four of the first five years. His book, Persuasive Advertising (2011), provides evidence-based persuasion principles. These 195 principles, many counter-intuitive, are relevant to dealing with the global- warming movement.
From Doctors for Disaster Preparedness 31st Annual Meeting, July 13, 2013, Houston, Texas.
Dr. Lee Hieb began her career in medicine at age four, accompanying her father on house calls along the back roads of Iowa. She graduated from the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry in Rochester New York, and completed an orthopaedic residency in the U.S. Navy. After serving as a general orthopaedic surgeon in the Navy, she returned to Rochester where she was the only woman to be appointed as the Louis A. Goldstein fellow of spinal surgery. Dr. Hieb has been in private practice for more than 25 years, and this experience has led her to become an outspoken advocate for free-market solutions. Dr. Hieb has served on the board of the Arizona Medical Association, and is a past president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society.
Anthony Watts is a 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran and currently chief meteorologist for KPAY-AM radio. He got his start as on-air meteorologist for WLFI-TV in Lafayette, Indiana and at KHSL-TV in Chico, California. In 1987, he founded ItWorks, which supplies broadcast graphics systems to hundreds of cable television, television, and radio stations nationwide. ItWorks supplies custom weather stations, Internet servers, weather graphics content, and broadcast video equipment. He also provides weather stations and custom weather monitoring solutions via www.weathershop.com and www.tempelert.com, and turnkey weather channels. In 2007, Watts founded SurfaceStations.org, a Web site devoted to photographing and documenting the quality of weather stations across the U.S. He is the author of Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?
Dr. Keen has written 8 books about weather and climate, and teaches at the University of Colorado in Boulder. From the 28th Annual Meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, held June 12, 2010 in Orlando, Florida.