DDP Newsletter May 2009, Vol. XXVI, No. 3
The seismic shock detected in Texas on Memorial Day was just a test. The magnitude of the tremor from the underground test of a North Korean 1.5 KT nuclear weapon registered 4.6, compared to 4.1 from the detonation in October, 2006. The strength of the Chinese response (“resolutely opposed”) was about the same.North Korea also tested three short-range missiles. It had staged a long-range missile test on July 4, 2006 (Wall St J5/26/09).Obama said, “I strongly condemn their reckless action.”
Obama’s 2010 defense budget, which is 4% higher than last year’s, cuts 15% from advanced missile or anti-missile systems. The U.S. doesn’t need 14 more missile interceptors to defend against a technologically unsophisticated North Korea, said Defense Secretary Robert Gates on May 14. The development of multiple kill vehicles on missile interceptors, and a second Boeing 747 equipped with laser technology to destroy missiles in boost phase have been scrapped. The Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile system has been curtailed, and funding for Northrop Grumman’s Kinetic Energy Interceptor withdrawn (Political Affairs 5/18/09).
Civil defense is unchanged; the level of ignorance is comparable to emergency managers not knowing to boil contaminated water before drinking it, states Steve Jones. There are probably fewer than a dozen qualified nuclear preparedness trainers in the U.S. Most first responders believe that nuclear weapons are not survivable and that they contaminate everything with radiation that lasts thousands of years. Emergency managers are willing to spend 15 minutes to be trained for nuclear attack, and most firefighters and police officers will listen for 2 minutes, Jones reports. The public resists preparing. There is not enough political will or donor support even for the Nuclear War Survival Skills plan (see Civil Defense Perspectives, January 2009). Something even more basic is needed.
The plan Jones suggests for continuity of government is to insure survival of police and fire departments. The principles for “60-Second N-terrorism Training for First Responders” could increase the chance of survival by 80% if you are not close to the blast. If you see the flash, you are not close to the blast.
These are the principles, which fit on a business card:
“A. Drop & cover when you see a flash. Stay down behind cover for two full minutes. Even covering with a newspaper can prevent burns. Keep eyes closed during bright light to prevent blindness.
“B. 7/10 Rule: Fallout loses 90% of its radioactivity in the first 7 hours after a detonation, and an additional 90% for every 7-fold increase in time: 90% in the first seven hours; 99% in 49 hours (two days); and 99.9% in two weeks.
“C. Fallout looks like sand, ash, or grit as it falls and accumulates on the ground. If no fallout is visible on ground, there is no radiation! To be sure, place a piece of white paper, a dinner plate, or anything with a smooth surface on the ground, and check every 15 minutes for fallout particles.”
“Put out any fires that may have started. Even if fallout is not present, take shelter in a basement, subway, middle floor of a high-rise, parking garage, etc. Stay in shelter 2-3 days in case of more attacks.
“This card might be the only nuclear training you get. Knowing A, B, & C can save your life and your department. FOR CONTINUITY OF YOUR LOCAL GOVERNMENT, COPY & GIVE THIS CARD TO ALL FIREFIGHTERS, POLICE, AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL IN YOUR JURISDICTION.
“These principles were developed during nuclear weapons tests from the 1940s-1960s and remain valid today!
“Improve your department’s survival. Read the first 35 pages of Nuclear War Survival Skills and make a Kearny Fallout Meter (app. C): www.madisoncountyema.com/Fallout.html. Also useful: SIRAD dosimeter or NukAlert (no instruments will be for sale in a crisis).”
Cards will be available at the DDP meeting. They cannot simply be mailed to the fire department. They must be delivered in person to the officer in charge of in-service training.
There’s a brief educational/motivational video of the 1988 Pepcon explosion in a rocket-fuel plant, available at www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJVOUgCm5Jk. Two of the seven explosions were of the magnitude of a small nuclear weapon. The delay between flash and blast wave is apparent. The 300 injuries might have been averted by drop & cover.
PAKISTAN RAPIDLY ADDING NUCLEAR ARMS
Pakistan already has an arsenal of 80 to 100 nuclear weapons. It is producing an unknown amount of bomb-grade uranium and working on a new series of reactors to generate bomb-grade plutonium for a new generation of weapons (Ledger 5/18/09). Making the mission of securing the weapons especially difficult is that the military has its missiles on Soviet-style mobile launchers and rail lines (Fox News 5/14/09). With the support of the Pakistani military, radical Deobandism has become the dominant Islamic idiom in most of the country, according to analyst Alex Alexiev (To the Point News 5/14/09).
CRISIS SPURS SPIKE IN “SUBURBAN SURVIVALISTS”
Camping supply and military surplus stores are seeing a 50% spike in business, as suburban professionals start to worry about possible financial mayhem–and its effect on the just-in-time supply line to supermarkets. Top sellers include 55-gallon water barrels, water filters, thermal blankets, and dust masks (www.msnbc.com 5/25/09).
SWINE (H1N1) INFLUENZA
A higher-than-usual incidence of influenza than typical for this time of year is being reported by the CDC, and most cases are positive for the novel H1N1 virus. It is feared that the next season could bring an extremely severe epidemic. A new broad-spectrum influenza antiviral–an aerosolized statin–is under study for mass use. Canopus BioPharma states that its new formulation is as effective as Tamiflu, and works even if given more than 48 hours after infection (Business Wire 5/12/09). Patients who take oral statin drugs, such as Lipitor, Pravachol, and Zocor, have had a lower death rate from pneumonia/influenza (Reuters 4/10/07). The mechanism of action is presumably the antiinflammatory effect. Influenza deaths may result from a “cytokine storm,” an over-reaction by the immune system.
A study of 208 black, post-menopausal women, half of whom received vitamin D3 supplementation and half placebo, showed that over 3 years, 26 of the patients on placebo reported cold or influenza symptoms, compared with only 8 in the D3 group (P<.002). The dose was 800 IU/d for 1 year, followed by 2,000 IU/d for 2 years (Kauffman J, J Am Phys Surg 2009;14(2):38-45, see www.jpands.org).
REGISTER NOW!
Once again we have an internationally known roster of outstanding scientists scheduled to speak at our 27th annual meeting, Jul 31-Aug 2, 2009, at the Doubletree Hotel Denver. A program/order form for recordings is enclosed. Note the hotel reservation deadline, June 15. The DDP conference rate is $94 for up to four guests.